“And if it goes into the ocean,” says Alley, “then it's not staying in the air.”. The Arctic has experienced the warming effects of global climate change faster than any other region on the planet. When he first started working there, hundreds of caribou covered the hills. The iconic emperor penguins could all but vanish by the end of the century, another new report projects. The sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is approaching its annual nadir. A 2019 National Geographic article noted that the planet’s permafrost is melting at a far faster rate than scientists had previously expected. The shifts are accelerating, the report says, and in future could exceed ecosystems’ ability to adapt. “A reasonably small difference in how things evolve could end up making a really big difference in what happens with sea levels.". Warmer temperatures in the Arctic accelerate the melting, which result in darker surfaces on the sea and land. And Antarctica’s penguins, some of which are already having to shift their ranges as coastal conditions change, may face widespread displacement in future. Short of artificially producing ice with water pumps or other not-yet-feasible means, there’s no direct fix for the melting Arctic besides arresting the overall release of heat-trapping gases. By early September each year about two thirds of the ice cap has melted, then the sea begins to freeze again. As long as temperatures remain the same as they have been for the last 100 years the Arctic will remain frozen in the long winter months and partly melt during very short summer months. The melting has caused coastal ice in parts of Canada and Alaska to become quite brittle. While both the Arctic and Antarctic are experiencing rising temperatures, thinning glaciers, disturbed ecosystems, and other alarming shifts as heat-trapping fossil fuel emissions build up, changes are sweeping the northern region far faster. [63] Reduction of the area of Arctic sea ice reduces the planet's average albedo , possibly resulting in global warming in a positive feedback mechanism. Research shows the polar vortex is appearing outside of the Arctic more frequently because of changes to the jet stream, caused by a combination of warming air and ocean temperatures in the Arctic and the tropics. “The accelerated Arctic warming impacts weather down here in the lower 48 and around the entire Northern Hemisphere by changing the temperature contrast between mid and high latitudes,” explains co-author Michael Mann, a Pennsylvania State University atmospheric scientist. One of scientists’ top concerns as the planet warms is the loss of Arctic sea ice. If Arctic ice melt doesn't boost sea levels, do we care? Since 1979, the length of the melt season for Arctic sea ice has grown by 37 days (see Figure 3). This is called the albedo effect. A catastrophic marine ecosystem crisis of unimaginable consequences is taking shape. Why the Arctic Matters for Global Warming. These are the facts: Melting ice speeds up climate change. “But it’s not as simple as they all do the same thing. The impacts of a warming Arctic will be felt well beyond the high latitudes in the near future, the report warns. While temperatures are surging in the Arctic—by century’s end, they could soar as much as 23.4 F (13 C) during parts of the year, according to the report—Antarctic warming has been similar to the global average, although some parts are warming much faster. Those trends worry scientists. The Arctic is effectively melting due to global warming, which is caused by massive amounts of greenhouse gas emissions. One bright note in the outlook: So far whales seem to be benefitting from range expansion as sea ice recedes. Melting Arctic sea ice is increasing warming in the region. And how does the rising temperature affect the environment, and our lives? Post is lead author of the report published today in Science Advances, in which an international group of scientists looks at current and future impacts of polar warming across a range of disciplines. We know the Arctic is melting – but it’s also on fire. "The question is whether we are listening. 2020 National Geographic Partners, LLC. The ice caps are melting and sea levels are rising because of the warming of our planet due to greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. There are no other significant, current forcing factors but human activities (burning of fossil fuels and cutting forests), so the melting in the Arctic is due to anthropogenic global warming. The loss of Arctic sea ice is a double whammy. Such fires are expected to become more common as the permafrost thaws, then dries out. Sea-level rise is another looming concern. Nowhere is climate change more obvious than in the Arctic. Most polar bears to disappear by 2100, study predicts. Now, he says, the herd is down to around 90. “You find yourself thinking they’ll be back next spring; numbers will go up again,” Post says, “but year after year goes by and the big groups just aren’t there the way they used to be.”. Moreover, the warming Southern Ocean could provide a route for invasive species and diseases to reach the isolated continent. The melting of Greenland's ice sheet is linked to polar amplification. The Arctic has warmed at more than twice the global average, causing sea ice at the top of the world to melt faster than scientists had projected. Melting all the sea ice on Earth would have no direct effect on sea level, while melting all the land ice would have a huge impact on sea level. As the ocean’s protective lid thaws, more sunlight enters the water, causing more warming, leading to yet more ice loss, in a feedback spiral. The ice-extent data are produced by the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado-Boulder. That ice loss fuels Arctic amplification—the force that’s speeding up northern warming. Ice helps cool the Earth by reflecting solar energy back into space. “Consequences of recent Arctic warming have already been widespread and pronounced, and yet we haven’t even seen what’s expected to be the most rapid phase of warming,” Post says. “Warming of the air or ocean can weaken the ice shelves, and beyond some threshold, they tend to break off,” says Alley. The consequences are global, not only from faster heating, but from potential disruption to large-scale features of weather, such as the Northern winter polar vortex. The past two years, however, have seen record autumn lows. Scientists at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography have developed a new theory aided by computer simulations and observations that helps explain why this occurs. By: Eric Roston, Mira Rojanasakul, Paul Murray, Brittany Harris, Demetrios Pogkas and Andre Tartar, With assistance from: Yue Qiu, Dean Halford, Julian Burgess and Lynn Doan. The Arctic is regarded as "ground zero for global warming" and Dadic said the sea ice was disappearing fast. A growing percentage of Arctic sea ice is only one or two years old. Arctic ice melting The Arctic ice pack is thinning, and a seasonal hole in the ozone layer frequently occurs. Meanwhile, warming is already knocking the Arctic’s seasonal clock off-kilter. © 1996-2015 National Geographic Society, © 2015- Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world. Feb 25, 2020. After all, many people linked the accident with the melting of permafrost,” Kobylkin said. At the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions, the North is on track to warm 7.2 F (4 C) year-round—and top 12.6 F (7 C) in autumns—by the middle of this century, according to the report. Let me conclude this paper by answering the question asked in the first part of the title by a categorical No, the Arctic is not melting. The Arctic is heating up twice as fast as the … Arctic land ice—particularly the vast ice sheet atop Greenland—is thawing faster than current climate models suggest, and could raise sea levels substantially more than the 3 feet projected by the end of the century in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s report released in September. A snapshot of melting Arctic sea ice during the summer of 2018. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/12/arctic.html, Find out why Earth’s climate systems are heading for dangerous tipping points, the High North is seeing unprecedented changes, essentially disappear within 20 to 25 years, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s report released in September, Arctic permafrost thaw is also escalating, knocking the Arctic’s seasonal clock off-kilter. Mann says the phenomenon has been linked with relentless hot spells like the ones that baked Europe this summer, and brutal cold snaps like the recent “Arctic blast” that froze the eastern and midwestern United States. Another recent study projects Arctic wildfire intensity doubling each year as thawing ground dries out. Less old multi-year ice implies that the ice cover is thinning, which makes it more vulnerable to further melting. Due to the clear link to their diminishing habitat, polar bears have become the poster children for the direct impact of this lost Arctic sea ice. Why this had happened with a reservoir that had been standing for many years, why the crack had appeared. And the Arctic helps to regulate the world’s temperature, so as more Arctic ice melts the warmer our world becomes. My Times column on how the Arctic sea ice has melted in late summer before, between 10,000 and 6,000 years ago:. As the Arctic loses snow and ice, bare rock and water absorb more and more of the sun’s energy, making it even warmer. Researchers find new reason Arctic is warming so fast. Documentation can be found here. Temperatures climbed nearly 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 Celsius) in the past decade alone. Published: 20 Jul 2020 Here, in the waters of the Fram Strait, between Svaalbard and Greenland, is where ice comes to die. If ice shelves in West Antarctica failed, and the Thwaites and other glaciers collapsed, sea levels could rise an additional foot or more by 2100—and a whopping 10 feet or more in the following century if irreversible glacier loss tipping points are crossed. Ice helps cool the Earth by reflecting solar energy back into space. Summer sea ice this year shrank to its second lowest extent since satellite measurements began in 1979, while record July heat melted billions of tons of ice off the Greenland ice sheet. “I know it's a dangerous thing to say,” says Stroeve, “but at this point, regardless of what we commit to with CO2 reductions, and the warming that we try to limit things to… we will likely see ice-free summers emerging.”. Those are the basic facts. Summer sea ice, which has been shrinking more than 10 percent a decade over the past 40 years, is projected to essentially disappear within 20 to 25 years at the current emissions rate. Both polar regions are changing, says co-author Richard Alley, a Penn State glaciologist and Antarctica specialist. And these wildfires could transform the pace, and scope, of global warming in ways that could affect us all. Spring plant growth is coming earlier and earlier, meaning tundra animals like the caribou at Post’s Greenland research site arrive at their annual birthing grounds after the plants they eat have passed their nutritional peak. This can be measured in square kilometers of ice cover, referred to as the sea ice extent. “That temperature contrast is responsible for the existence of the jet stream, and when it decreases, the jet stream tends to slow down and weather systems linger longer in the same location,” he says. The Arctic – While the Ice Is M... WHAT WE DO / SERVICES; MEDIA NEWS KLASSIK INTERNATIONAL. Losing reflectivity is bad enough—the ocean around the ice becomes darker and absorbs energy, warming the water and melting more ice. As Earth trudges steadily toward a dangerously warm future, a new report on the outlook for the polar regions says the Arctic is already there—with consequences on the horizon for everyone. Major glaciers—most notably the Florida-sized Thwaites—are rapidly retreating, while the floating ice shelves that hold them in place are thinning above and below. Arctic warming also stands to disrupt the marine food web, increase mortality for polar bears and seals, and threaten the livelihoods of the region’s indigenous people. In this installment of the Butterfly Effect, climate change is creating incredible economic opportunity in the Arctic, leading to saber rattling from Canada and Russia. Art; Photographers Flowers open before the insects that pollinate them can get there, and migrating birds miss the spring flush. Why Does the Melting of Arctic Sea Ice Matter? “There is a real possibility that we will be entering a phase of accelerated Arctic warming in the next two to four decades if mitigation action isn’t taken soon,” says Post, a climate change ecologist at the University of California, Davis. “The article makes the point that even with the low emissions scenario—and a 2 degrees C warmer world is down at the low end of the emissions scenario spectrum—the Arctic is a changed place.”. Jul 29, 2020. Ice melt is a feedback loop Shiny ice and snow reflect a high proportion of the sun's energy into space. Its shrinking ice cap is a consequence of warming—and now an accelerator, too. But what is causing this change? 1.3 What causes climate change? That ice easily breaks away in large chunks (a process known as calving) and melts in the open ocean. The loss of Arctic sea ice is a double whammy. Over that time, he’s seen profound changes. The Arctic is not the Antarctic and the Antarctic is not the Arctic.”, Antarctica is surrounded by the vast Southern Ocean, which is soaking up much of the atmosphere’s excess heat.